The Replacement Teams

by Daniel Conmy

Last night, the American League (AL) All-Stars defeated the National League (NL) All-Stars, 4-2. The American League representative will receive home-field advantage in the World Series happening in October. That's all well and good, but let's get to the real game: The Replacement Game.

The Replacement Game is comprised of 32 players that have accumulated negative WAR values halfway through the season. There is only one participant that does not have a negative value to their team and we will get to him shortly, but first, a primer.

These two teams, National League and American League, are comprised of at least one member from each organization, like the All-Star game that takes place every summer. There will always be snubs, so feel free to discuss my mistakes and make a point to add your own players. I used the FanGraphs player leaderboard to field two of the worst teams that we could possibly see this season. Some members were past All-Stars, but now they are a part of a truly woeful group. Each representative will have a fun fact (or not so fun for some) about their uninspiring play of the first half. 

Before we get to the names, I must note that this is all for fun. These players are professional athletes and, therefore, have much more talent on a baseball field than yours truly. This is a fun exercise to see who has truly been pitiful for half a season. Some might continue that trend in the second half and some might be able to turn it around. Now, let's look at the American League batters.

American League Batters

Name	Team	Position	wRC+	WAR
Chris Coghlan	Oakland Athletics	3B	29	-1.5
Yan Gomes	Cleveland Indians	C	31	-0.5
Ryan Goins	Toronto Blue Jays	2B	32	-0.6
Jake Marisnick	Houston Astros	OF	36	-0.8
Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	1B	57	-1.2
Alcides Escobar	Kansas City Royals	SS	60	-0.5
Prince Fielder	Texas Rangers	DH	65	-1.6
Avisail Garcia	Chicago White Sox	OF	70	-0.6
Justin Upton	Detroit Tigers	OF	75	-0.6

Chris Coghlan, former NL rookie of the year, already is an interesting name because he is now on the Chicago Cubs. I am going to stick with him on the Athletics because that is where most of his negative value comes from. This season is quite a shock because Coghlan posted a combined 5.7 WAR in the past two seasons. This season, Coghlan has walked a little less, but his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 28.6 percent from 18.7 percent in 2015. 

Yan Gomes is one of very few members of the MLB to come from Brazil. Unfortunately for this Brazilian star, the success did not come after signing a six-year/$23 million deal to stay with the Cleveland Indians. Gomes was a fantastic pitch framer in 2014, but even that part of his game has deteriorated over the last two seasons. 

Ryan Goins is a perfect defensive replacement, but he joins this illustrious lineup as a regular. Goins has increased his fly ball percentage, which usually means more success, but he's punted his line drives for the added air under the ball. It certainly doesn't help that his average fly ball only travels 196 feet, which is below the league average of 213 feet.

Jake Marisnick has a wonderful arm and is part of a Houston Astros outfield that throws the ball historically hard. Sadly, that's the only thing that is going well for the outfielder. Marisnick is hitting more fly balls which usually leads to more home runs, but only 2.7 percent of his fly balls have made it over the fence this year. Marisnick is a potential candidate for a better second half if he gets the playing time on the playoff hopeful Astros.

Mark Teixeria is broken. That certainly isn't his fault given his amazing career as a wonderful defender at first base and one of the best switch hitters in baseball history. This next statement is truly the first fun fact of this whole thing. Teixeria is the fifth switch hitter in history to hit at least 400 home runs. That is a truly incredible accolade when you realize who comprises that group.

Alcides Escobar swings at the first pitch often. We are talking an obscene amount of times. Despite his historic playoff run last year, this shortstop only holds values with his glove. Escobar was a part of the package that sent Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Prince Fielder is certainly the largest man on this list and he comes in sporting diminished numbers. We are talking about a player that once hit 50 home runs, but with his unfortunate neck injuries he has not returned to form that we so often saw on the Brewers.

Avisail Garcia was constantly referred to as the "mini-Miguel Cabrera" earlier in his career. What similarities they may have in their swings, it absolutely ends there. Garcia hits more than half of the balls on the ground. For a power hitter, he certainly needs to reverse this trend this year if he wants to be a productive member of a fading Chicago White Sox.

Justin Upton signed a six-year/$132.8 million in the offseason and is easily the worst performer on this list given his contract. In what world would Melvin Upton Jr. be the better of the brothers? I certainly didn't believe that would be the case, but here we are. Justin Upton is striking out at the highest rate of his career and is making soft contact more often than in years past.

That ends the Replacement Game batters for the AL. Now, let's move onto the pitchers for this team.

American League Pitchers

Name	Team	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Chris Young	Kansas City Royals	6.79	7.98	5.19
Steve Geltz	Tampa Bay Rays	6.75	9.03	5.55
Clay Bucholz	Boston Red Sox	5.91	6.05	5.54
Kevin Jepsen	Minnesota Twins	6.16	5.88	5.33
Darren O'Day	Baltimore Orioles	3.15	5.43	3.86
Joel Peralta	Seattle Mariners	5.40	5.58	4.20
Jered Weaver	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	5.27	5.61	5.62

Chris Young is a special player because of his height and the spin rate on his fastball. He does not overpower hitters with a fastball in the high 90's, rather he enjoys pitching in the mid 80's high in the zone. While in past years we saw success that bewildered many, we are finally seeing him come back down to earth. 26 percent of the fly balls that Young gives up leave the park. That is just incredible given that he is a fly ball pitcher. 2006 was the only year that Young gave up more home runs with 28, but he already has given up 26 (!) home runs this year.

Steve Geltz is certainly a relief pitcher and that's the most of my knowledge about him. The unfortunate part about these teams is you will find the occasional reliever you've never heard of and I think we are at that point. Geltz was optioned to Durham, the Rays AAA affiliate on June 24. Geltz is small in stature at 5'10" and was signed as an amateur free agent by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Matt Shoemaker, member of the Angels, also signed an amateur free agent deal and he has gone on to become one of the more intriguing pitchers with his extreme use of his splitter. 

Clay Bucholz has been given plenty of opportunities in a disappointing Red Sox starting rotation. Bucholz holds a 5.91 K/9 and a 4.13 BB/9. You would love to see the K/9 right around nine and the BB/9 statistic under two, but if he had those numbers, he would have no place on the replacement team being sculpted before your very eyes. 

Kevin Jepsen was released right before the All-Star break and he epitomizes what it's like for most relievers. A couple good years, a bad year here and there, then released. Jepsen was victim to a .350 BABIP this year, which is .039 points from his average of .311. 

Darren O'Day is the person I had to pick from the Orioles. Realistically, Baltimore was the hardest team to pick a player from given their lack of awfulness. Joey Rickard could be chosen after cooling down from a torrid start. Alas, O'Day was chosen as tribute from a highly competitive Orioles club. The ERA isn't awful, but FIP, which focuses on what the pitcher can control does not like the submarine pitcher. This is a case where O'Day constantly outperforms his peripherals given his distinct pitcher style. Nonetheless, O'Day is worth -0.2 WAR to the Orioles. Not bad for a first-place team.

Joel Peralta, like Chris Coghlan, is now a member of the Chicago Cubs. In this exercise, he is representing the Pacific Northwest and the Seattle Mariners. At 40 years old, Peralta is the oldest member of the Replacement Team.

Jered Weaver threw a Maddux this year. A Maddux is a complete game shutout where the pitcher throws less than 100 pitches. This is incredible given the fact that Jered Weaver literally has a lower velocity on his fastball than some players have on their curveball. Weaver is certainly one of the most ridiculous pitchers of the year and yet he is still pitching innings, albeit on a team that is wasting the best years of Mike Trout's career.

Whew, that's done with. What a ride looking at some of the worst players in the American League. Shall we do it again for the National League? Let's.

National League Batters

Name	Team	Position	wRC+	WAR
Jordan Pacheco	Cincinnati Reds	3B	-9	-0.6
A.J. Pierzynski	Atlanta Braves	C	22	-1.2
Carl Crawford	Los Angeles Dodgers	OF	25	-0.8
Erick Aybar	Atlanta Braves	2B	37	-1.6
Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	DH	43	-1.6
Ramon Flores	Milwaukee Brewers	OF	50	-0.7
Alexei Ramirez	San Diego Padres	SS	59	-1.9
Chris Johnson	Miami Marlins	1B	59	-0.6
Gerardo Parra	Colorado Rockies	OF	62	-0.6
Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	1B	78	-0.5

I must confess that this list was more difficult than the American League list because of the lack of parity in the National League. By many metrics that you sort by, you usually see the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies at the bottom. Many more members of those teams could be on this team, but we had to cut most of them out because of the restraints for this hypothetical team. Onto the members of this team.

Jordan Pacheco is a baseball player for the Reds that are located in Cincinnati, Ohio. Pacheco has only appeared in 31 games this year, but has managed a negative value at the plate. That's certainly newsworthy. Pacheco is the third-worst batter with at least 50 plate appearances, ahead of Erik Kratz and Johnny Cueto.

A.J. Pierzynski is a journeyman catcher that will likely be calling it quits after this abysmal campaign. That's not to say he did not have success in his long career starting in 1998. Pierzynski is a World Series champion and that's more than I can say about my baseball career. A third place medal would have been a success for me, but I digress.

Carl Crawford is always a player I feel bad for. I know he's made more money than I will ever see in my life, but you have to feel for a guy that possibly can get injured by just getting out of bed for the day. Crawford was a superstar in 2010 where he posted a 7.7 WAR, which I'm sure he longs for everyday as he rides the pine on the most expensive team in baseball.

Erick Aybar is the second Atlanta player on this list. I tried to keep it to one per team, but Atlanta is just that bad this year. Just two years ago, Aybar put up a 4.3 WAR. Now, with moot defensive value and negative offensive ability, the Braves can deploy him as the "veteran" on a dumpster fire that will be moved to Cobb County next year.

Ryan Howard should be released. I know this is getting harsher and harsher as this moves on, but Howard had his run. A player who hit 58 home runs in his first full season absolutely has value, but once those home runs dip under 30, then the value dwindles until the immobile first basemen is being platooned. Howard always had strikeout issues and his player profile is certainly getting washed out of the game quickly.

Ramon Flores is 24 years old playing in his first full season of the big leagues. Sometimes we expect negative value from a player who is getting a chance for experience. The Brewers brought in David Stearns in the offseason as their General Manager and enacted a rebuilding of the team. When that is the case, younger players get a chance to perform and seize a spot moving forward. For Flores, that spot is slipping away from him in his future.

Alexei Ramirez has played in way too many games this year. Appearing in all but one of the Padres 89 games, Ramirez accrued the most negative WAR on the team. In past years, Ramirez was an asset defensively, but given his age, shortstop is certainly not for him anymore. 

Chris Johnson is that one-hit wonder band. You always think back to other songs (seasons) and really remember why they were a one-hit wonder. In this case, it was 165 hits in 2013 that was the wonder. Johnson strikes out 30 percent of the time and only walks five percent of the time, which is not a good combination when you do not hit over 30 home runs.

Gerardo Parra has walked four times in 249 plate appearances. If I never swung the bat in 249 plate appearances, I guarantee that I would get more than four walks. You have to try to not walk and Parra has almost perfected this ability, which is one I do not recommend. 

Ryan Zimmerman was in the news after being awful after Bryce Harper was walked. Not much has changed in the scope of his whole season, which has seen him be 22 percent worse than the average hitter this year. Zimmerman was a part of a travelball team that consisted of himself, Melvin Upton Jr., Justin Upton, and David Wright. Quite the lineup to work against.

National League Pitchers

Name	Team	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Josh Osich	San Francisco Giants	4.15	5.91	4.51
Adam Warren	Chicago Cubs	5.79	5.93	5.26
Trevor Rosenthal	St. Louis Cardinals	5.40	4.18	3.94
Shelby Miller	Arizona Diamondbacks	7.14	5.69	5.19
Logan Verrett	New York Mets	4.34	5.44	5.07
Jon Niese	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.13	5.49	4.39

Home stretch. I may get nasty when it comes to Shelby Miller, but if you've gotten this far then I must applaud you reading this questionable list from an author that is just trying to have some fun. Anyway, let us finish up with the National League pitching staff.

Josh Osich is the unfortunate member from a very good San Francisco Giants team. Osich, a left-handed specialist, is not a very good member from the previously mentioned good team. With this only being his second year in the big leagues, we are seeing the volatility of relievers. Osich was very good last year, posting an ERA- of 61. With decreased control, Osich has become a member that is a  LOOGY. We can confirm that's the case because Osich has 43 appearances and has only pitched 26 innings.

Adam Warren was very good as a reliever on the New York Yankees. Now, Warren is giving up more fly balls which has led to seven home runs in 32.2 innings pitched. The Cubs haven't been great this past month, but they have very little to worry about as Warren will likely regress to the mean. To argue against the previous point, relievers are random and Warren could very easily be past his prime. I am very indecisive.

Trevor Rosenthal is fascinating. He is the only member that is not worth negative WAR on this list. He comes in with a perfect zero in the WAR category. What else is fascinating with Rosenthal is his ability to walk batters and strike batters out. Rosenthal strikes out 28.4 percent of the batters he faces, but he walks 15.5 percent of the batters he faces. Cardinals Manager, Mike Matheny, recently took away the closer role from the flamethrower. I fear for Rosenthal given his absurd walk rate. It only reminds me of once dominant reliever, Daniel Bard, who could never make it back from his battle with walks. 

Shelby Miller is not worth Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Aaron Blair. This is not Miller's fault. This is the work of the Arizona Diamondback General Manager, Dave Stewart. Once a great pitcher of the Oakland Athletics, Stewart continues to make a mockery of the General Manager position. Selling off assets that could arguably help you win now for an 'ace' is mind-boggling. And what did Stewart receive? Stewart received a laughably bad pitcher in Shelby Miller who is trying to right the ship to an atrocious first half of the season. The ERA is worse than the FIP, so you can argue that he will regress, but the FIP is still above five. One of the untapped aspects of baseball is the psychological side and Miller is possibly feeling the affects of what we call pressure. The Diamondbacks literally sold the farm for a bonafide ace and, instead, they received a pitcher who was never considered a bonafide ace.

Logan Verrett is a spot starter for the New York Mets. He certainly isn't the worst pitcher on this list and he has a role that no one envies. Verrett's hard contact rate has gone up by 8.9 percent from 2015. Along with that stat, Verrett has missed less bats. When you adds those together, you get a higher ERA and FIP. Verrett is a long reliever and he's making the league minimum on a fun, young Mets team that has a chance to make the playoffs. Not a bad experience to tell your kids.

Jon Niese was a good fifth starter option for four or five years, but those years are over. There is some unlucky aspects to Niese's game, like his home run rate. Niese is giving up a home run on 22.7 percent of fly balls, which is far above his average of 12.1 percent in his career. 

That wraps a rather long experiment looking at the worst baseball players in the game in the first half. Would you like to watch this game if it did take place? Would this game be offensive? Defensive? Would we see more balls drop because of the poor defense at premier positions? These are all wonderful questions that I will not explore at this time, but thank you for you patience on a rather dreadful subject, the Replacement Teams. 

Matt Carpenter is something else

by Daniel Conmy

While the Cardinals are nine games out of first place, they are still four games over .500. The Cardinals ability to remain relevant is impressive to say the least. We've seen Jeremy Hazelbaker provide positive value before flaming out and being optioned to Triple-A. Aledmys Diaz, although atrocious defense at short, continues to fire on all cylinders at the plate. These are players that have performed above expectations, but there is one Cardinals player that is seemingly getting better each year and that is Matt Carpenter.

The left-handed hitting infielder has 54 walks to 53 strikeouts and has continued to raise his ISO every year since 2014. What does that tell us? Carpenter has elite control of the strikezone, but now he is damaging pitches farther and at a much higher rate than in years past. Carpenter has a 167 wRC+, which is better than his best mark in 2013 when he posted a 146 wRC+. We cannot assume that Carpenter will keep up his blistering pace, but we can dig into the numbers to see if there is some sustainability to the numbers put forth.

We already noted that Carpenter has elite ability with his understanding of the strikezone. To add to that Carpenter has raised his contact rate inside the zone. Last year, Carpenter hit 87 percent of the balls pitched inside the zone and this year he's raised that number to 92.8 percent. That's quite an uptick within the zone. Outside the zone, he's lowered his rate by a measly 1.5 percent, but every percentage point makes a significant difference over a 162-game season.

Another piece of information to look at before believing the numbers put forth are his splits. It's been noted that there are usually splits between same handedness batter and pitcher. And, yes, Carpenter faces that issue, but he is still 43 percent better than league average when facing a left-handed pitcher.

Now, for my favorite Matt Carpenter piece of information. Carpenter's hard hit percentage has risen while his soft hit percentage has fallen below ten percent. Carpenter now makes hard hit contact on 43.9 percent of the balls he puts in play. While his ground ball, fly ball, and line drive rates have remained seemingly constant over the past couple years, Carpenter is in the top ten in average distance on every batted ball. This is can begin to explain why Carpenter has seen his isolated power improve from .103 in 2014 to .285 in 2016.

While these numbers show extreme improvement from the infielder, this is half a seasons worth of data and plenty of things can change from here until the rest of the season. This is a cautionary note, but with Carpenter's elite contact skills, I see no reason from him slowing down his torrid pace. While all credit should be placed on Carpenter's ability, you have to wonder how the St. Louis Cardinals continue to develop great players deep in their draft classes.

Midseason-ish report on Clayton Kershaw

by Daniel Conmy

I must admit that I overvalue the walk a lot, but there is an extreme fascination when it comes to batters walking often or pitchers not walking batters at a high rate. Last season, I talked about some batters and their ability to walk. Today, I will talk about the amazing Clayton Kershaw who really can do no wrong.

Before getting into why Clayton Kershaw is becoming one of the most prolific pitchers in all of history, let's chit chat about a story about how I came to realize my weird obsession with four pitches outside the zone.

Recently at a bar with my friends, I noted that Kershaw walked his seventh batter of the year. One friend, with a lengthy background in baseball understood my reasoning behind such a discussion topic. The other just asked, "Why? It's just a walk." Just a walk? No, this is not just a walk. This is a walk from a pitcher that is on pace for the best WHIP in a single season and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in history. As I was frantically stating the significance of walking another batter it came to fruition that maybe people just don't care about walks as much as I do. And that's a fair level-headed assumption. I take walks as my holy grail. You cannot give up free passes as a pitcher and as a hitter you should take as many as you can get.

Now, let's jump into the mind-boggling ability of Clayton Kershaw. Before we get too far, let's note that last night was Kershaw's 15th start of the season. That is less than halfway for a pitcher, as aces usually get 33 starts. Barring any injury, we can call this a midseason-ish report because this is clearly going to be very cut and dry as to what to expect for the rest of the season and what he has already done. No, of course not. That is what make projections fun. They are hypothetical marks that a player can get to if they continue on the current trend of the season or can exceed said marks if they continue to get better. Let's get to some number, shall we?

Kershaw is on pace to strikeout 310 batters this year after taking into account his 15th start of the season. Last year Kershaw amassed 301 strikeouts, the first time someone did that since 2002 when Randy Johnson struck out 334. To go along with that, Kershaw is on pace to have the second best field-independent pitching (FIP) numbers since Pedro Martinez's historic 1999 season. After giving up six hits in seven innings against the Washington Nationals, Kershaw raised his walks/hits per inning (WHIP) to .67, which is still better than the best mark by Pedro Martinez. Although these are all incredible numbers, we haven't even begun to discuss my favorite fun fact with this superstar from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Clayton Kershaw has walked seven people all year in 115 innings pitched. That's unimaginable. Even the best pitchers walk people, right? Well Clayton Kershaw did not get the memo. His walk rate is down to 1.7 percent. It is improbable that Kershaw continues to get better, yet nothing should amaze us at this point.

To go along with the amazing walk rate, Kershaw also is absolutely shattering the strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) single-season record with a mark of 20.14 strikeouts to one walk. The next closest pitcher was Phil Hughes who recently broke the record with a 11.63 clip. Kershaw would have to walk the next five batters without recording a strikeout to get to an 11.75 mark.

These are numbers that have conceivably been the result of a change in Kershaw's pitching style. So, did Kershaw change anything this year from his last historic season that can make sense of these jumps to even higher praise? Well, Kershaw is using his slider more often. The Dodger ace is throwing his slider a third of the time. Every year we've seen a slight increase in Kershaw's sliders except for a small dip in 2015. Obviously this trend will not continue and will plateau eventually, but the slider has been such a weapon, that if it is used more, it can lead to more and more strikeouts. We recently saw Matt Shoemaker throw his splitter more frequently, which led to incredible results. Could Kershaw be doing that same incremental increase with his slider? Possibly, but one thing Kershaw can keep constant is the armslot where he delivers his pitches.

From this chart, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, we see very small variations in Kershaw's vertical release point for every pitch from 2007 to 2016. While his horizontal release point has changed a significant amount, all pitches - fastball, slider, curveball - come from the same location no matter the horizontal change. Of course, you have to give or take a few inches with each of these numbers, but can a major league player adjust that quickly and spot the error when Kershaw throws a fastball or when he throws a slider? No player has consistently figured out Clayton Kershaw and that's why is brilliance still remains.

Max Scherzer and Home Runs

by Daniel Conmy

On my trip across the country to Illinois, I discovered something that I wish came into my life sooner. I found podcasts. Yes, podcasts. Podcasts are where two people talk about a certain topic that varies from 30 minutes to multiple hours. My topics of choice are baseball and baseball. Surprise, right? Well if you are a fanatic like I am, then I recommend Effectively Wild with Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller, Statcast Podcast with Mike Petriello, and Fangraphs podcast with Carson Cistulli and a plethora of guests. Now, you might not understand how this piece is about Max Scherzer just yet, and really I don’t know either. All I know is Scherzer has given up plenty of home runs this year. We will look at his career numbers and his season numbers if we can see any discernible change from past years.

First off, Scherzer has given up 17 home runs before play on June 18. He gave up 27 home runs all last year. So is we extrapolate those numbers for a full season, Scherzer would give up 40 (!) home runs. That would place him tied for 13^th most in all of Major League Baseball (MLB) history. That is an absurd amount of home runs. 

Scherzer absolutely loves his fastball. I don’t blame him. With an average velocity of 94.2 mph, he is able to challenge plenty of hitters and beat him on that pitch. Although he challenges and wins often, Scherzer is on pace to give up 21 home runs on fastballs, most since 2011. This is definitely a concern, but when looking at heat maps from 2014, where Scherzer only gave up nine home runs, and 2016, there is no noticeable difference between where Scherzer throws his fastball. Arguably, Scherzer was better in 2014 with throwing inside off the plate than he is this year. Maybe that is where Scherzer needs to adjust. If fastballs leak over the middle of the plate, big league hitters are more than capable hitting them over the fence. 

That's not the only place where the Nationals ace has struggled. Scherzer tied his career-high of home runs given up on sliders through 14 starts, tying his total in 2011. There are plenty of reasons for this, one easily could be that Scherzer is not locating his slider. In 2016, Scherzer is throwing many of his sliders over the outside corner to right handed batters. This would be fine, but the majority of his sliders are leaking up in the zone and over the middle of the plate. This is a very similar situation to what we saw on his fastballs. 

Overall, Scherzer is still striking out the opposition at a rate higher than 30 percent, which is definitely elite. There is a slight uptick of home runs per fly ball compared to last year (10.5 percent in 2015 and 16.5 percent in 2016). Also, the Nationals star is walking batters at a 6.7 percent clip compared to a 3.8 percent clip last year. With all those numbers, Scherzer can easily make a small change and continue to be one of the most successful pitchers in the game. He can start this change by facing off against a light hitting Padres team tonight at Petco Park.

There is no real reason to be concerned with Scherzer when looking at his underlying numbers, but it is interesting note that a lack of fastball and slider command has led to a higher walk rate and home run rate. Scherzer will continue to strike out batter after batter, but can he sustain being elite with less control?

Cody Allen vs. The Mariners

by Daniel Conmy

Last night, the Mariners had the chance for a walk-off home run against Cody Allen, the Cleveland Indians closer. While the term "closer" is not necessary, we signify Allen as the best reliever on the Indians at this time, or at least that is what Terry Francona thinks. We should not be arguing whether or not Allen is an elite reliever, but more of his ability in the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners. To set the stage, Cody Allen came in with the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth and induced a weak ground ball to the second basemen. That concluded the eighth inning.

In the ninth inning, Allen started the inning against Chris Iannetta, Dae Ho Lee, and Nori Aoki. The first at-bat will help set the stage for the rest the inning. Iannetta recently clobbered two home runs in yesterday's game. While recent success is not proven to breed further success, Allen came in with a two-run lead, which gave him the ability to take a chance against Iannetta.

As you seen in the strikezone plot, supplied by Brooks Baseball, Cody Allen tried to work away and down, but his first and fifth pitched leaked over the middle of the plate. Iannetta took the 3-1 offering and scorched a ball to the hole between the third basemen and shortstop. The ball was hit at 97 mph, which usually becomes a hit, but Jose Ramirez, the Indians third basemen made a fine play on the ball. 

That is not an easy play to make and with the slower runner in Iannetta, Ramirez took his time and threw him out with time to spare. The Indians fan appreciated the effort put forth by Ramirez, and I am sure Allen did as well. One out.

Now, Dae Ho Lee is facing off against Allen. Allen starts Lee off with a curveball in the dirt, not the best pitch as you want to obviously start ahead in the count. Allen then proceeds to throw five fastballs in a row, most on the outside corner, but one leaking on the inside half for a ball. Lee struck out on the high fastball. Two out.

Up next, Nori Aoki. Aoki saw two fastballs and smacked the second one up the middle at 97 mph for a single. Two outs, one on. 

Seth Smith stood in the left-handed batters box to face off against Allen. Surprisingly, Cody Allen has reverse splits throughout his career. That means right-handed hitters (.297 wOBA) hit Allen harder than left-handed hitters (.261 wOBA). Aoki does not have significant splits when facing a right handed batter or left handed batter, but Seth Smith has immense splits (63 wRC+ vs. LH and 123 wRC+ against RH). With that noted, Allen starts off Smith with two fastballs on the outside corner, which Smith fouls back. Then Allen comes back with a curveball not placed where he would like for an 0-2 count. Allen throws the curveball over the middle of the plate and Smith hits a line drive into center field. Two out, men at the corners.

Robinson Cano earlier in the game hit two home runs, one coming just the inning before. There is one open base at second and the hitter on-deck is Nelson Cruz. Now as a closer, you trust that your best stuff can beat the opposing teams best stuff, and here we find if that's the case.

We've noted that Allen does not have significant splits when pitching to a right-handed hitter or a left-handed hitter, but Robinson Cano does (137 wRC+ vs. RH and 109 wRC+ vs. LH). He is above league average against both lefties and righties, but certainly hits better against right-handed pitchers. Also, we've seen Allen throw a 12-6 curveball, which helps neutralize any splits when facing a different handed batter. Cano takes the first pitch for a ball high and away. Allen proceeds to throw three more fastballs, one which hits the outside corner, 3-1. This is where Allen does not want to challenge. This is often called a "hitters count" because the hitter can zone in on one certain pitch. What does Allen do? Below, we can see he throws a perfect curveball on the outside corner of the plate for strike two, 3-2.

This chance, this is what you dream about as a kid. Being in a spot where you can hit the game-winning walk-off home run. The Mariners are down by two runs and Robinson Cano, arguably the best batter in their lineup is ready for a 3-2 delivery from Allen. What does Allen do? 

Allen throws the pitch exactly where he should; in the dirt. Three outs, game over.

It is the perfect pitch location for an aggressive hitter who has the ability to hit the ball out of the ball park. Allen was not perfect in this inning by any means, but the last two pitches thrown show his ability to come up in a big spot. Earlier in the inning the same two-strike curveball was left over the middle of the plate. Allen was inconsistent with his placement of the curveball throughout the inning, but he threw the last pitch exactly where no damage could be done. For the Mariners it was a difficult loss, as they see the Rangers lengthened their lead and for the Indians it is a win that keeps them in a four-team race in the AL Central. While this game is only a blip in all 162 games, all of them matter.

Joey Votto and the lefty strike

by Daniel Conmy

Joey Votto threw a tantrum yesterday. Not only did he get ejected, but the Reds superstar needed to be restrained by a good chunk of teammates and coaches so he didn't go after the umpire and take some swings. If you have not seen the call that made this tirade happen, feast your eyes on this.

Now, you can look at Votto and say that he overreacted to a call that has always been called a strike to lefties. Or you can challenge how umpires call the game.

There's the call in question if you want a freeze frame. That is Francisco Cervelli catching that ball on the outer half or into the right handed batter's box. He brings an interesting angle to this story that we will get to in a little bit, but back to Votto.

Joey Votto is known for his patience at the plate and his ability to take a walk. Votto knows the strike zone very well, but Bill Welke thought he knew it a little better last night. While Votto seemed upset about not be awarded time in the video, the pent up rage began because of this borderline call.

Alright, let's break down the other pieces of this picture. Bill Welke has his head over the middle of the plate. That changes his perception on the outer half for lefties. Umpire positioning is key to whether or not a pitch will be called a ball or strike. It has been documented that lefties have an unfair advantage at the plate and their counterparts do not need to even come close to the strike zone to get the batter out during lefty-lefty matchups. There is one other piece that we have not discussed in depth yet, and that is Francisco Cervelli.

Cervelli is one of the best pitch framers in the game. Don't take my word for it, look at this data taken from StatCorner.

I'll get to what all those sections mean in a second, but the focus should be on calls. Those are the extra calls that Cervelli is able to get based on his pitch framing ability, which is good for 1.86 per game. His oStr% is the percentage of calls his able to get called strikes that would be balls if a perfect zone was in place. That is the largest percentage with catchers who have a large sample size for the 2015 season.

Was Votto right to erupt? Probably based off of his perception of the strike zone. Bill Welke was not the only reason this pitch was called a strike. Welke's positioning in regards to the outside corner and the framing abilities of Francisco Cervelli were the most important factors.

Jackie Bradley Jr. is a baseball player again

by Daniel Conmy

Bradley was a prized pick when he dropped out of the first round and into compensation picks. The Boston Red Sox snagged him and Bradley Jr. started developing into a prized talent that could eventually impact the outfield in Boston. For the past three years, Bradley couldn't figured it out at the plate. The defense has always been stellar, but the bat was so nonexistent, so it wasn't worth the defensive upside to put him in the lineup. Then, in the middle of the 2015 season, something clicked.

In no way do I condone the use of small sample size, but Bradley turned his season around with one fateful day. At the plate, Bradley Jr. went 5 for 6 with two home runs and three doubles. There were signs in early August, but this explosion on the scene cemented a transformation. In July, Bradley posted a negative wRC+, but he quickly turned it around in August, posting a wRC+ of 210. Yes, that means he was 110 percent better than the average ballplayer in August. Why the sudden change of course?

Bradley changed his timing mechanism. Before, he did not lift up his leg, but simply shifted weight. The medium leg lift, which helps some batters time pitches, created a better version of Jackie Bradley Jr. Now, Bradley is in the middle of the Red Sox plans for upcoming seasons. A defensive wizard suddenly found a new ability.

Do not throw caution to the wind and believe that Jackie Bradley has turned it around though. Eluded to earlier, this is a small sample. In the month of August, he was one of the best players in terms of WAR. Players have good months. They have good first halves. Remember Bryan LaHair?

While being cautiously optimistic, Bradley Jr. needs to play at this level for the length of a season before trusting the numbers he's putting up. The physical change to his swing might be the only thing holding him back, but time will tell if that's the only speed bump in his game. Pitchers will soon adjust and then we will see if Bradley can easily adjust over the next challenge he faces at the plate.